Exodus
Are the people fleeing blue states harming more prosperous red states or are they making the red states stronger?
The second book of the Old Testament describes Exodus as the departure of the Israelites out of Egypt. The Israelites were fleeing enslavement, which is not unlike, at least metaphorically, the feeling of those leaving California and other blue states.
The trend of Americans leaving blue states for red states has accelerated over the last ten years. The migration seems to be politically driven in that people are consistently leaving blue states for red ones. It’s not so much the policies of blue state governments that are driving people away but the results of those policies.
People are fleeing states having higher crime, higher taxes, higher housing costs, excessive government regulations, and failing public education systems for states with fewer of those problems. We also see this migration at the county level with people leaving predominately Democrat controlled urban areas for suburban or rural areas where governments are less likely to be Democrat controlled.
Since governments that implement bad policies are elected by the people an obvious question must be considered. Are people fleeing blue states bringing their political beliefs with them so that they elect politicians in their new states that will implement the bad policies that caused them to flee in the first place? Put another way what is the mix of left leaning versus right leaning “leftugees” and are they helping or harming the states to which they migrate?
Information from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates California, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois lost a combined 4 million residents between 2010 and 2019. In that same period Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio, and Arizona gained the most new residents.
Who is leaving? Some argue that people leaving California, for instance, are less educated, more likely to be in poverty, and are no longer of working age. Those migrating to California tended to be younger, highly educated, and employed according to one study.
This of course is mostly propaganda. The truth is that the middle class is being driven from California and many of the other blue states. This middle class includes retirees as well as young families for many of whom conditions have made the state unlivable. This middle class includes people of all races and all walks of life. A free society cannot survive without a healthy, robust middle class.
Some argue this migration is hurting more conservative states and cite Colorado and Arizona as examples. Colorado was once considered leaning blue and is now considered a solid blue state. Arizona was once considered solid red and is now considered a battleground state as is Nevada. This argument can certainly be made.
But another argument can be made as evidenced by what’s happening in Florida. Over the last ten months the GOP in Florida had a net gain of 325,000 voter registrations. 66 of Florida’s 67 counties shifted towards the red. The GOP gained over 61,000 new registrations in Miami-Dade County. Last year Democrats held the edge with 37.38% of registrations compared to the GOP’s 35.28%. Much of this growth is likely due to the strong leadership of Republican Governor Ron DeSantis but it does suggest that an influx of refugees from blue states doesn’t necessarily spell doom for a red state.
What does the exodus mean for those who stay? Since people leave for a variety of reasons those leaving likely consist of people with a mix of political views, neither predominantly conservative nor liberal. In general people leave because of conditions created by poor governmental policies. For those who stay this is a fixable problem.
Political conditions are dynamic and shift regularly. California was not always a mess politically, neither was Washington or Oregon. Texas wasn’t always a red state; remember Ann Richards and LBJ?
California is one of the most beautiful states in the country and would be one of the best places to live were it not for a corrupt and incompetent government. Governments can be changed. If you stay in California whether by choice or out of necessity, then stay and fight. Get involved in organizations that support the things you believe in. Help get good men and women elected to office. Make California the great place that it is meant to be. Leaving doesn’t have to be the answer.
©2022 Joseph T Drammissi
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